The Hormuz Desk

Evidence through

Live situation desk

Iran, Hormuz, and the routes through

Is the Strait open? Still no

UTC

Gulf

What changed

The two-minute briefing

Routine unrestricted commercial navigation remains unverified despite recovering oil flows. Reuters via Business Recorder cites preliminary Kpler data projecting September exports through Hormuz at about 7.4 million barrels per day. Regional crude exports recovered to 12.8 million barrels per day, still about 6 million below February. The figures exclude vessels with transponders off and cannot be compared directly with daily vessel counts. AP’s September 26 report describes U.S. military guidance of commercial ships amid Iranian attack risk, while Trump rejected Iran’s conditional reopening proposal. Protected passage does not establish safe unescorted access. Reuters also reports oil-transfer congestion outside Hormuz. Supplied PortWatch observations still end September 20 with one cargo crossing and no tankers; this lagged AIS snapshot cannot establish present operating conditions.

Evidence through · 122 words

Rolling situation

What is happening now

Newest accepted claims first. Labels describe the evidence state; source roles describe who supplied it.

  1. Shipping Claimed

    Mideast oil exports rebound in September as Saudi Arabia boosts shipments

    Reuters via Business Recorder cites preliminary Kpler data projecting September oil exports through Hormuz at about 7.4 million barrels per day. Regional crude exports recovered to 12.8 million barrels per day, still about 6 million below February; transponder-off vessels are excluded.

    Attribution: Reuters via Business Recorder, citing preliminary Kpler data

  4. Shipping Claimed

    Hormuz commodity ship transits fall to nine, shiptracking data shows

    Reuters via Business Recorder reports nine tracked Hormuz crossings on September 24, down from 14 on September 23; eight exited and one entered. Preliminary counts omit vessels sailing with transponders off.

    Attribution: Reuters via Business Recorder, citing preliminary shiptracking data

  5. Shipping Claimed

    Some 60 ships passed through Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, US official says

    Reuters via BOE Report attributes to an unnamed U.S. official roughly 60 commercial crossings on September 23, about 40 coordinated with the U.S. military for protection. Reuters could not independently verify the figures.

    Attribution: Reuters via BOE Report, citing an unnamed U.S. official

  6. Operational Status Claimed

    Seafarer Killed in Hormuz Attack as Trump Pushes Iran Deal at UN

    gCaptain, citing Oman’s Maritime Security Center and India’s embassy, reports one Indian seafarer killed and 27 survivors evacuated after a September 23 attack on Cape Dao off Musandam near Hormuz.

    Attribution: gCaptain citing Oman’s Maritime Security Center and India’s embassy

  7. Regional Actors Claimed

    Trump Calls for Iran’s Economic Isolation at UN as Tehran Offers Hormuz Reopening

    Reuters, republished by gCaptain, cites sources saying Saudi Arabia restarted its East-West pipeline on September 22; reduced-volume Yanbu exports could resume within hours.

    Attribution: Sources cited by Reuters, republished by gCaptain

  8. Operational Status Claimed

    Two More Tankers Hit in Strait of Hormuz as Attacks Mount

    gCaptain, citing UKMTO, reports two September 21 Hormuz tanker incidents: an inbound tanker hit by an unknown projectile with two minor crew injuries, and an outbound LPG tanker hit by projectile debris. Both continued their voyages; no environmental impact was reported. Responsibility was not attributed.

    Attribution: gCaptain citing UKMTO

  10. Operational Status Claimed

    Iran says it strikes an oil tanker, and other Mideast developments

    AP relays Iran’s claim that it struck the Togo-flagged tanker Trend attempting Hormuz passage and its warning against unauthorized transit. AP could not immediately confirm the strike.

    Attribution: Iranian state broadcaster citing the Revolutionary Guard, via Associated Press

  11. Operational Status Claimed

    Strait of Hormuz Ship Crossings Remain in Single Digits, Data Shows

    Reuters, republished by gCaptain on September 16, reports preliminary data showing four Hormuz crossings on September 15, down from seven on September 14. Ships sailing with transponders off may be absent from the count.

    Attribution: Reuters, republished by gCaptain, citing preliminary shipping data

  12. Military Reported

    U.S. and Iranian accounts differ over boat strikes

    AP reports the U.S. military said it destroyed two Iranian boats attempting to seize an unmanned vessel; Iranian state media described attacked fishing boats and missing fishermen.

    Attribution: Associated Press, citing U.S. Central Command and Iranian state media

At a glance

Four desks, no flashing lights

The latest accepted change from each core desk. Quiet cards are allowed to remain quiet.

Analysis

Read beyond the answer

Interpretation is published from accepted evidence and does not manufacture a new event.

All analysis

Shipping data

Published movement, with the lag left on

Nonzero crossings and an active disruption record can occupy the same page without starting an argument.

Open Strait desk

IMF PortWatch

Published Strait crossings

Data through

Latest day
1

Seven-day average
3.1

Published crossings

90-day peak
51

Publication lag
3 days

At snapshot fetch

Daily AIS-derived Strait of Hormuz crossing counts Ninety published days ending Sep 20, 2026. Bars show daily crossings and the gold line shows a rolling seven-day average. Exact values follow in a table.
AIS-derived counts are useful context, not proof of unrestricted passage. The upstream series may lag and revise. Snapshot fetched .
Read the daily values
Latest 90 published PortWatch days, newest first
DateAll crossingsTankersOther cargo
1 0 1
6 1 5
7 2 5
3 0 3
1 0 1
2 1 1
2 0 2
8 1 7
2 1 1
8 3 5
5 1 4
3 0 3
6 2 4
5 2 3
6 2 4
2 0 2
2 0 2
2 1 1
3 1 2
4 1 3
3 1 2
6 2 4
3 1 2
7 0 7
2 2 0
5 2 3
4 4 0
3 2 1
3 1 2
7 1 6
4 2 2
5 2 3
6 4 2
6 4 2
4 3 1
1 1 0
1 1 0
7 2 5
6 2 4
3 1 2
9 2 7
4 2 2
3 0 3
10 2 8
6 4 2
2 0 2
5 0 5
7 4 3
6 3 3
3 0 3
5 3 2
8 2 6
4 1 3
7 3 4
5 1 4
5 0 5
3 2 1
2 0 2
3 0 3
0 0 0
6 1 5
6 1 5
5 2 3
4 2 2
6 2 4
1 1 0
6 1 5
9 3 6
8 5 3
10 2 8
4 1 3
6 3 3
7 4 3
10 3 7
20 8 12
26 10 16
25 16 9
22 16 6
17 8 9
24 17 7
28 15 13
29 18 11
16 6 10
26 13 13
16 7 9
25 9 16
30 17 13
46 21 25
51 20 31
29 12 17

PortWatch disruption record

Trade Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz

RED

Trade Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz from: 01 Mar 2026 to: - .

Active since
Coverage
Strait polygon
Latest traffic
1 crossings

Source: IMF PortWatch · snapshot fetched

Six-port watch

Context around the chokepoint

Fujairah, Jebel Ali, Khalifa, Sohar, Ras Laffan, and Ras Tanura help separate route pressure from broader Gulf trade.

View port activity

Markets

A delayed board with an attribution rule

Brent, WTI, and selected shipping or energy equities are shown as delayed market context. A move becomes conflict commentary only when strong reporting or specialist analysis connects it to Hormuz or the wider conflict. The board itself is not a causal model.

Open markets desk

Delayed commodities

Brent and WTI

Provider delayed

The interactive commodity board is supplied by TradingView and may be blocked. The instruments tracked here are Brent crude and WTI crude.

Selected equities

Energy and shipping watch

Provider delayed

Prices are context, not a causal claim. Direct instrument pages remain available if the embedded board is blocked.

Field Guide

Field Guide spotlight

A chokepoint can carry selective, protected, approved, or AIS-dark traffic while remaining unusable for routine unrestricted commercial passage. The unit of evidence matters: a ship crossed; traffic normalized; an authority issued terms. Those are three different statements.

Read the guide

Guide 1

Shipping basics

Read traffic counts with route conditions, publication lag, vessel type, and the difference between an observed crossing and a normal commercial schedule.

Guide 2

Weapons and systems

The desk explains systems only when their verified appearance or use changes the reporting picture.

Guide 3

Actors

Iran, the United States, Gulf governments, Oman, maritime authorities, shipowners, insurers, crews, and energy buyers each answer a different version of the question.

Guide 4

Background

Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman. Its importance comes from concentrated energy exports, dense commercial traffic, and very limited substitutes.

External reading

Useful exits

A small set of primary documents and strong reporting, selected for relevance rather than volume.

IMF PortWatch

PortWatch platform

Source platform for the site’s delayed AIS-derived datasets.

IMF PortWatch

The evidence store is internal. The citations are not.