The Hormuz Desk

Evidence through

The standing question

Is the Strait of Hormuz open?

STILL NOPE

UTC

Gulf

What changed

The two-minute briefing

U.S. strikes and Iranian attacks on two UAE-linked tankers changed the operating picture again on July 14. AP reported one mariner killed and eight wounded, alongside new attacks on Bahrain and Jordan. Washington says it is reinstating a blockade aimed at Iranian shipping while proposing a 20 percent cargo charge for protected passage; Tehran also claims control. Those accounts agree on very little beyond the fact that routine navigation has not returned. AP cited Kpler data showing crossings down about 52 percent across the latest comparison window and roughly 14 ships on Sunday, versus about 130 a day before the war. JMIC’s latest captured advisory still rates the threat severe. IMF PortWatch shows some AIS-derived crossings through July 5, with an active disruption record. Selective movement continues. Normal commercial passage does not.

Evidence through · 132 words

At a glance

Four desks, no flashing lights

The latest accepted change from each core desk. Quiet cards are allowed to remain quiet.

Analysis

Read beyond the answer

Interpretation is published from accepted evidence and does not manufacture a new event.

All analysis

Shipping data

Published movement, with the lag left on

Nonzero crossings and an active disruption record can occupy the same page without starting an argument.

Open Strait desk

IMF PortWatch

Published Strait crossings

Data through

Latest day
10

Seven-day average
16.4

Published crossings

90-day peak
51

Publication lag
3 days

At snapshot fetch

Daily AIS-derived Strait of Hormuz crossing counts Ninety published days ending Jul 12, 2026. Bars show daily crossings and the gold line shows a rolling seven-day average. Exact values follow in a table.
AIS-derived counts are useful context, not proof of unrestricted passage. The upstream series may lag and revise. Snapshot fetched .
Read the daily values
Latest 90 published PortWatch days, newest first
DateAll crossingsTankersOther cargo
10 1 9
14 4 10
9 4 5
11 4 7
15 5 10
28 12 16
28 14 14
26 16 10
22 11 11
31 21 10
34 18 16
40 23 17
21 6 15
31 13 18
20 11 9
27 9 18
37 19 18
50 23 27
51 21 30
15 5 10
14 9 5
8 1 7
26 12 14
13 5 8
22 11 11
15 1 14
12 2 10
11 1 10
6 0 6
4 0 4
7 1 6
7 2 5
6 1 5
6 2 4
8 2 6
3 1 2
3 0 3
3 0 3
6 2 4
11 4 7
6 4 2
3 2 1
3 0 3
5 1 4
4 0 4
4 0 4
6 2 4
7 2 5
7 0 7
9 2 7
8 1 7
6 0 6
8 2 6
13 5 8
7 3 4
6 1 5
5 2 3
10 2 8
5 2 3
9 4 5
8 2 6
6 1 5
9 4 5
9 3 6
5 2 3
4 1 3
4 1 3
2 0 2
1 0 1
4 0 4
6 1 5
10 5 5
10 4 6
7 4 3
5 3 2
5 2 3
0 0 0
3 2 1
6 2 4
8 3 5
3 2 1
7 4 3
4 3 1
8 5 3
7 5 2
22 14 8
18 10 8
11 5 6
13 7 6
9 5 4

PortWatch disruption record

Trade Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz

RED

Trade Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz from: 01 Mar 2026 to: - .

Active since
Coverage
Strait polygon
Latest traffic
10 crossings

Source: IMF PortWatch · snapshot fetched

Six-port watch

Context around the chokepoint

Fujairah, Jebel Ali, Khalifa, Sohar, Ras Laffan, and Ras Tanura help separate route pressure from broader Gulf trade.

View port activity

Markets

A delayed board with an attribution rule

Brent, WTI, and selected shipping or energy equities are shown as delayed market context. A move becomes conflict commentary only when strong reporting or specialist analysis connects it to Hormuz or the wider conflict. The board itself is not a causal model.

Open markets desk

Delayed commodities

Brent and WTI

Provider delayed

The interactive commodity board is supplied by TradingView and may be blocked. The instruments tracked here are Brent crude and WTI crude.

Selected equities

Energy and shipping watch

Provider delayed

Prices are context, not a causal claim. Direct instrument pages remain available if the embedded board is blocked.

Field Guide

Field Guide spotlight

A chokepoint can carry selective, protected, approved, or AIS-dark traffic while remaining unusable for routine unrestricted commercial passage. The unit of evidence matters: a ship crossed; traffic normalized; an authority issued terms. Those are three different statements.

Read the guide

Guide 1

Shipping basics

Read traffic counts with route conditions, publication lag, vessel type, and the difference between an observed crossing and a normal commercial schedule.

Guide 2

Weapons and systems

The desk explains systems only when their verified appearance or use changes the reporting picture.

Guide 3

Actors

Iran, the United States, Gulf governments, Oman, maritime authorities, shipowners, insurers, crews, and energy buyers each answer a different version of the question.

Guide 4

Background

Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman. Its importance comes from concentrated energy exports, dense commercial traffic, and very limited substitutes.

External reading

Useful exits

A small set of primary documents and strong reporting, selected for relevance rather than volume.

IMF PortWatch

PortWatch platform

Source platform for the site’s delayed AIS-derived datasets.

IMF PortWatch

The evidence store is internal. The citations are not.