The Hormuz Desk

Evidence through

The standing question

Is the Strait of Hormuz open?

Still no

UTC

Gulf

What changed

The two-minute briefing

Routine unrestricted commercial navigation remains unverified. AP reported progress in Iran-Oman talks toward reopening Hormuz and said Trump expected a possible announcement Wednesday or Thursday, but no agreement or implemented passage regime was verified. The latest confirmed operating event remains the August 4 cargo-ship projectile strike, when AP described the Strait as effectively shut. Earlier reporting said most of nine Sunday transits used an Iranian-controlled route. JMIC update 072 still rates the regional threat SEVERE, citing blockade enforcement, mine risk, GNSS interference, surveillance, and heightened transit procedures. PortWatch's lagged AIS-derived series now ends August 2; nonzero movement does not establish routine passage.

Evidence through · 102 words

reported

Reopening talks advance without agreement

AP reported progress in Iran-Oman talks and a possible near-term announcement, but no agreement or implemented operating change was verified.

Associated Press,

reported

Cargo ship reports projectile strike

AP reported a cargo ship struck northeast of Al Khasab and described Hormuz as effectively shut while U.S. and Iranian accounts of talks diverged.

Associated Press,

reported

Cargo remains stalled after pause

AP said Hormuz cargo traffic remained stalled and earlier announced strike pauses repeatedly broke down; Iran remained alert and no reopening was verified.

Associated Press,

reported

Strike, near miss undercut opening proposal

AP reported a tanker strike and a separate near-miss explosion as proposed deal parameters called for reopening Hormuz without Iranian public agreement.

Associated Press,

reported

JMIC keeps threat severe

JMIC update 072 cited the renewed blockade, a disabled blockade-breach vessel, mine risk, GNSS interference, and heightened transit procedures.

JMIC / UKMTO,

At a glance

Four desks, no flashing lights

The latest accepted change from each core desk. Quiet cards are allowed to remain quiet.

Analysis

Read beyond the answer

Interpretation is published from accepted evidence and does not manufacture a new event.

All analysis

Shipping data

Published movement, with the lag left on

Nonzero crossings and an active disruption record can occupy the same page without starting an argument.

Open Strait desk

IMF PortWatch

Published Strait crossings

Data through

Latest day
2

Seven-day average
3.9

Published crossings

90-day peak
44

Publication lag
3 days

At snapshot fetch

Daily AIS-derived Strait of Hormuz crossing counts Ninety published days ending Aug 2, 2026. Bars show daily crossings and the gold line shows a rolling seven-day average. Exact values follow in a table.
AIS-derived counts are useful context, not proof of unrestricted passage. The upstream series may lag and revise. Snapshot fetched .
Read the daily values
Latest 90 published PortWatch days, newest first
DateAll crossingsTankersOther cargo
2 0 2
3 2 1
6 1 5
2 1 1
6 2 4
4 1 3
4 0 4
3 2 1
1 0 1
3 0 3
0 0 0
3 1 2
4 1 3
3 1 2
4 2 2
5 2 3
1 1 0
4 1 3
8 3 5
5 3 2
7 2 5
3 1 2
6 3 3
4 3 1
7 2 5
11 4 7
24 10 14
23 14 9
20 15 5
15 6 9
23 17 6
25 14 11
27 17 10
14 5 9
24 12 12
11 6 5
24 9 15
27 17 10
43 21 22
44 18 26
11 4 7
10 8 2
6 1 5
23 12 11
9 3 6
19 10 9
8 0 8
5 2 3
6 1 5
0 0 0
0 0 0
1 1 0
2 2 0
3 0 3
4 2 2
7 1 6
0 0 0
2 0 2
0 0 0
3 1 2
8 3 5
5 3 2
2 1 1
2 0 2
3 0 3
1 0 1
2 0 2
1 1 0
3 2 1
4 0 4
5 2 3
3 1 2
2 0 2
4 2 2
7 3 4
4 3 1
4 1 3
2 1 1
6 1 5
2 2 0
6 3 3
3 2 1
3 1 2
6 4 2
5 2 3
1 1 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0

PortWatch disruption record

Trade Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz

RED

Trade Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz from: 01 Mar 2026 to: - .

Active since
Coverage
Strait polygon
Latest traffic
2 crossings

Source: IMF PortWatch · snapshot fetched

Six-port watch

Context around the chokepoint

Fujairah, Jebel Ali, Khalifa, Sohar, Ras Laffan, and Ras Tanura help separate route pressure from broader Gulf trade.

View port activity

Markets

A delayed board with an attribution rule

Brent, WTI, and selected shipping or energy equities are shown as delayed market context. A move becomes conflict commentary only when strong reporting or specialist analysis connects it to Hormuz or the wider conflict. The board itself is not a causal model.

Open markets desk

Delayed commodities

Brent and WTI

Provider delayed

The interactive commodity board is supplied by TradingView and may be blocked. The instruments tracked here are Brent crude and WTI crude.

Selected equities

Energy and shipping watch

Provider delayed

Prices are context, not a causal claim. Direct instrument pages remain available if the embedded board is blocked.

Field Guide

Field Guide spotlight

A chokepoint can carry selective, protected, approved, or AIS-dark traffic while remaining unusable for routine unrestricted commercial passage. The unit of evidence matters: a ship crossed; traffic normalized; an authority issued terms. Those are three different statements.

Read the guide

Guide 1

Shipping basics

Read traffic counts with route conditions, publication lag, vessel type, and the difference between an observed crossing and a normal commercial schedule.

Guide 2

Weapons and systems

The desk explains systems only when their verified appearance or use changes the reporting picture.

Guide 3

Actors

Iran, the United States, Gulf governments, Oman, maritime authorities, shipowners, insurers, crews, and energy buyers each answer a different version of the question.

Guide 4

Background

Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman. Its importance comes from concentrated energy exports, dense commercial traffic, and very limited substitutes.

External reading

Useful exits

A small set of primary documents and strong reporting, selected for relevance rather than volume.

IMF PortWatch

PortWatch platform

Source platform for the site’s delayed AIS-derived datasets.

IMF PortWatch

The evidence store is internal. The citations are not.