The Hormuz Desk

Evidence through

Live situation desk

Iran, Hormuz, and the routes through

Is the Strait open? Still no

UTC

Gulf

What changed

The two-minute briefing

Routine unrestricted commercial navigation remains unverified despite a stronger recovery in regional oil exports. Reuters’ October 5 report cites provisional Kpler data putting the seven-day regional crude export average at 18.5 million barrels per day on October 1, slightly above the prewar average. That aggregate includes Red Sea shipments and Gulf of Oman transfers as well as Hormuz; it is not a Strait-only measure. The same report relays Marisks’ account of continuing tanker attacks. Attack details and underlying tracking data remain independently unverified. AP’s October 4 tanker-damage account has an unknown incident date and may overlap earlier reports. Military-guided movements do not establish safe unescorted access. Edison still reports canceled QatarEnergy deliveries into December. Supplied PortWatch observations end September 27 and cannot establish present operating conditions.

Evidence through · 126 words

Rolling situation

What is happening now

Newest accepted claims first. Labels describe the evidence state; source roles describe who supplied it.

  1. Shipping Claimed

    Middle East Crude Oil Exports Exceed Pre-War Levels But Attacks Increase

    Reuters via gCaptain cites provisional Kpler data putting regional crude exports at an 18.5 million bpd seven-day average on October 1, including Hormuz, Red Sea and Gulf of Oman transfers. It also relays Marisks’ report of continuing tanker attacks; unrestricted navigation remains unverified.

    Attribution: Reuters via gCaptain, citing provisional Kpler data and Marisks

  3. Operational Status Claimed

    Six Vessels Hit in Strait of Hormuz Since Sunday

    gCaptain cites UKMTO Warning 148-26: an outbound tanker reported a projectile strike on October 2, causing a fire and blackout. The fire was extinguished and passage continued; no casualties or environmental impact were reported. Vessel identity and responsibility remain unknown.

    Attribution: gCaptain citing UKMTO; corroborated by Reuters via Times of Israel

  4. Operational Status Claimed

    Another Tanker Hit in Strait of Hormuz as Attacks Continue

    gCaptain, citing UKMTO Warning 147-26, reports a tanker struck by an unknown projectile and a fire in Hormuz on October 1. Crew were reported safe; damage, environmental impact and responsibility remain unclear.

    Attribution: gCaptain citing UKMTO

  5. Operational Status Claimed

    Three More Tanker Attacks Surface in Delayed Hormuz Reports

    gCaptain reports three delayed UKMTO tanker-attack warnings published September 30, covering reports received September 29. Incident times, vessel identities, damage and responsibility remain unverified.

    Attribution: gCaptain citing UKMTO

  6. Shipping Claimed

    Qatar-linked LNG traffic thru Hormuz picks up

    Reuters via Business Recorder reports more Qatar-linked LNG movements; GasLog Skagen reappeared off Sri Lanka on September 27 carrying a Ras Laffan cargo, citing LSEG and Kpler.

    Attribution: Reuters via Business Recorder

  8. Shipping Claimed

    Mideast oil exports rebound in September as Saudi Arabia boosts shipments

    Reuters via Business Recorder cites preliminary Kpler data projecting September oil exports through Hormuz at about 7.4 million barrels per day. Regional crude exports recovered to 12.8 million barrels per day, still about 6 million below February; transponder-off vessels are excluded.

    Attribution: Reuters via Business Recorder, citing preliminary Kpler data

  12. Shipping Claimed

    Hormuz commodity ship transits fall to nine, shiptracking data shows

    Reuters via Business Recorder reports nine tracked Hormuz crossings on September 24, down from 14 on September 23; eight exited and one entered. Preliminary counts omit vessels sailing with transponders off.

    Attribution: Reuters via Business Recorder, citing preliminary shiptracking data

At a glance

Four desks, no flashing lights

The latest accepted change from each core desk. Quiet cards are allowed to remain quiet.

Analysis

Read beyond the answer

Interpretation is published from accepted evidence and does not manufacture a new event.

All analysis

Shipping data

Published movement, with the lag left on

Nonzero crossings and an active disruption record can occupy the same page without starting an argument.

Open Strait desk

IMF PortWatch

Published Strait crossings

Data through

Latest day
1

Seven-day average
3.1

Published crossings

90-day peak
29

Publication lag
4 days

At snapshot fetch

Daily AIS-derived Strait of Hormuz crossing counts Ninety published days ending Sep 27, 2026. Bars show daily crossings and the gold line shows a rolling seven-day average. Exact values follow in a table.
AIS-derived counts are useful context, not proof of unrestricted passage. The upstream series may lag and revise. Snapshot fetched .
Read the daily values
Latest 90 published PortWatch days, newest first
DateAll crossingsTankersOther cargo
1 1 0
4 1 3
3 2 1
5 3 2
4 1 3
3 1 2
2 0 2
1 0 1
6 1 5
7 2 5
3 0 3
1 0 1
2 1 1
2 0 2
8 1 7
2 1 1
8 3 5
5 1 4
3 0 3
6 2 4
5 2 3
6 2 4
2 0 2
2 0 2
2 1 1
3 1 2
4 1 3
3 1 2
6 2 4
3 1 2
7 0 7
2 2 0
5 2 3
4 4 0
3 2 1
3 1 2
7 1 6
4 2 2
5 2 3
6 4 2
6 4 2
4 3 1
1 1 0
1 1 0
7 2 5
6 2 4
3 1 2
9 2 7
4 2 2
3 0 3
10 2 8
6 4 2
2 0 2
5 0 5
7 4 3
6 3 3
3 0 3
5 3 2
8 2 6
4 1 3
7 3 4
5 1 4
5 0 5
3 2 1
2 0 2
3 0 3
0 0 0
6 1 5
6 1 5
5 2 3
4 2 2
6 2 4
1 1 0
6 1 5
9 3 6
8 5 3
10 2 8
4 1 3
6 3 3
7 4 3
10 3 7
20 8 12
26 10 16
25 16 9
22 16 6
17 8 9
24 17 7
28 15 13
29 18 11
16 6 10

PortWatch disruption record

Trade Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz

RED

Trade Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz from: 01 Mar 2026 to: - .

Active since
Coverage
Strait polygon
Latest traffic
1 crossings

Source: IMF PortWatch · snapshot fetched

Six-port watch

Context around the chokepoint

Fujairah, Jebel Ali, Khalifa, Sohar, Ras Laffan, and Ras Tanura help separate route pressure from broader Gulf trade.

View port activity

Markets

A delayed board with an attribution rule

Brent, WTI, and selected shipping or energy equities are shown as delayed market context. A move becomes conflict commentary only when strong reporting or specialist analysis connects it to Hormuz or the wider conflict. The board itself is not a causal model.

Open markets desk

Delayed commodities

Brent and WTI

Provider delayed

The interactive commodity board is supplied by TradingView and may be blocked. The instruments tracked here are Brent crude and WTI crude.

Selected equities

Energy and shipping watch

Provider delayed

Prices are context, not a causal claim. Direct instrument pages remain available if the embedded board is blocked.

Field Guide

Field Guide spotlight

A chokepoint can carry selective, protected, approved, or AIS-dark traffic while remaining unusable for routine unrestricted commercial passage. The unit of evidence matters: a ship crossed; traffic normalized; an authority issued terms. Those are three different statements.

Read the guide

Guide 1

Shipping basics

Read traffic counts with route conditions, publication lag, vessel type, and the difference between an observed crossing and a normal commercial schedule.

Guide 2

Weapons and systems

The desk explains systems only when their verified appearance or use changes the reporting picture.

Guide 3

Actors

Iran, the United States, Gulf governments, Oman, maritime authorities, shipowners, insurers, crews, and energy buyers each answer a different version of the question.

Guide 4

Background

Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman. Its importance comes from concentrated energy exports, dense commercial traffic, and very limited substitutes.

External reading

Useful exits

A small set of primary documents and strong reporting, selected for relevance rather than volume.

IMF PortWatch

PortWatch platform

Source platform for the site’s delayed AIS-derived datasets.

IMF PortWatch

The evidence store is internal. The citations are not.