The Hormuz Desk

Evidence through

Live situation desk

Iran, Hormuz, and the routes through

Is the Strait open? Still no

UTC

Gulf

What changed

The two-minute briefing

Routine unrestricted commercial navigation remains unverified. UKMTO’s October 16 overview reports 12 regional attacks in its latest reporting period, ten in Hormuz, and warns that many incidents go unreported. Its seven-day traffic total through October 14 combines AIS observations with U.S.-supplied facilitated movements that UKMTO cannot independently verify. JMIC’s October 15 assessment retains a severe Hormuz threat level. Its official-hosted PDF, marked DRAFT, disputes the reported Cape Dao sinking, conflicting with the Reuters-cited IMO account; the vessel’s status remains unresolved. Singapore’s maritime authority confirms GFS Pride sank and GFS Giselle reached safe anchorage, with both crews safe. Responsibility and weapons remain unverified. PortWatch still ends October 11 with two crossings. Neither lagged AIS observations nor protected movements establish safe unrestricted passage.

Evidence through · 121 words

Rolling situation

What is happening now

Newest accepted claims first. Labels describe the evidence state; source roles describe who supplied it.

  1. Operational Status Claimed

    JMIC Update 105: severe threat and disputed Cape Dao status

    JMIC Update 105 maintains a severe Hormuz threat assessment and identifies GFS Pride with notice 170, GFS Giselle with 172 and Al Saadiyat with 173. It disputes reports that Cape Dao sank, stating it is not sunk; this conflicts with the Reuters-cited IMO account.

    Attribution: JMIC Update 105 (official-hosted PDF marked DRAFT)

  2. Operational Status Claimed

    UKMTO weekly overview: attacks and mixed-source transit totals

    UKMTO reports 12 regional attacks in its latest weekly overview, ten in Hormuz, and warns of underreporting. For the seven days through October 14, combined transits total 254, including 42 AIS observations; U.S.-supplied facilitated movements and associated totals are not independently verified by UKMTO.

    Attribution: UKMTO

  3. Operational Status Claimed

    Reuters: Cape Dao sank after September 23 attack

    Reuters cites IMO data available October 14 reporting Cape Dao sank near Hormuz after its September 23 projectile strike. The sinking is not a newly dated attack; exact sinking time remains unverified.

    Attribution: Reuters via Investing.com, citing IMO data

  4. Operational Status Claimed

    UKMTO notices 172–173: delayed container-ship strike reports

    UKMTO notices 172–173 dated October 14 report delayed inbound and outbound container-ship projectile strikes, minor damage, no casualties and continued passage. Precise incident times, identities and overlap with named-vessel accounts remain unresolved.

    Attribution: UKMTO official search index

  5. Operational Status Claimed

    Singapore MPA reports GFS Pride sinking and GFS Giselle damage

    Singapore’s MPA says GFS Pride sank after damage and fire, with 21 crew safely evacuated. GFS Giselle reached safe anchorage with hull damage; all 22 crew are safe. Reported projectile strikes occurred October 13 and 14 respectively, in Singapore time. No injuries reported; responsibility is unverified.

    Attribution: Singapore MPA

  6. Operational Status Claimed

    UKMTO notices 166–171: additional tanker and container ship strikes

    UKMTO notices dated October 12–13 report further projectile strikes on tankers and container ships in Hormuz. Notices 167–169 are time-late reports; notices 170–171 describe a container ship and tanker struck. Exact incident times, identities, damage and responsibility remain unresolved.

    Attribution: UKMTO

  8. Operational Status Claimed

    UKMTO notices 162 and 164: outbound tanker strikes

    UKMTO notices 162 and 164 report projectile strikes on outbound tankers in Hormuz on October 10 and 11. The first caused fire; the second caused damage. Crew were reported safe. Vessel identities and responsibility remain unknown.

    Attribution: UKMTO notices 162 and 164, corroborated by gCaptain

  9. Operational Status Claimed

    Reuters Connect: Ocean Molica strike handout and date verification

    Reuters Connect carries a CENTCOM handout depicting smoke and fire after a strike on October 10. CENTCOM says it disabled Ocean Molica in the Gulf of Oman after the crew ignored blockade warnings. Reuters checked the date using ship-tracking data; the exact strike location is unverified.

    Attribution: CENTCOM handout via Reuters Connect; Reuters date verification

  10. Operational Status Claimed

    Vessel Struck by Unknown Projectile Off UAE Coast Amid Surge in Attacks, UKMTO Says

    Reuters relays UKMTO’s report of a projectile strike 13 nautical miles west of Al Jazeera, UAE, on October 9, causing a fire that was extinguished. Crew status, damage and environmental impact remain unknown. Shipping and security sources identify GEM NO.2; its operator could not be reached. Responsibility is unclaimed.

    Attribution: Reuters via gCaptain, citing UKMTO and shipping/security sources

  11. Operational Status Claimed

    Attack Risks Rise for Tankers as Iran Vows to Block More Hormuz Routes

    Reuters cites regional sources describing Iranian threats against unauthorized export routes. Maritime security sources identify the tanker struck north of Qatar as Acers and report minor crew injuries; the operator was unreachable. These attributed accounts do not establish unrestricted passage.

    Attribution: Reuters via gCaptain, citing regional officials and maritime security sources

  12. Operational Status Claimed

    Attacks on Tankers in Hormuz Hit Highest of Any Week Since Start of Iran War, Sources Say

    Reuters via gCaptain reports maritime security sources counted at least 12 tanker attacks around Hormuz in September 28–October 5, the highest weekly total since the war began. Separate IMO data recorded nine vessel incidents; coverage and verification differ. Reuters also relays JMIC’s warning of persistent attacks and harassment.

    Attribution: Reuters via gCaptain, citing maritime security sources, IMO data and JMIC

At a glance

Four desks, no flashing lights

The latest accepted change from each core desk. Quiet cards are allowed to remain quiet.

Analysis

Read beyond the answer

Interpretation is published from accepted evidence and does not manufacture a new event.

All analysis

Shipping data

Published movement, with the lag left on

Nonzero crossings and an active disruption record can occupy the same page without starting an argument.

Open Strait desk

IMF PortWatch

Published Strait crossings

Data through

Latest day
2

Seven-day average
4.1

Published crossings

90-day peak
10

Publication lag
4 days

At snapshot fetch

Daily AIS-derived Strait of Hormuz crossing counts Ninety published days ending Oct 11, 2026. Bars show daily crossings and the gold line shows a rolling seven-day average. Exact values follow in a table.
AIS-derived counts are useful context, not proof of unrestricted passage. The upstream series may lag and revise. Snapshot fetched .
Read the daily values
Latest 90 published PortWatch days, newest first
DateAll crossingsTankersOther cargo
2 1 1
4 0 4
3 0 3
4 0 4
6 1 5
2 1 1
8 1 7
4 0 4
2 0 2
4 0 4
0 0 0
4 4 0
1 0 1
4 2 2
1 1 0
4 1 3
3 2 1
5 3 2
4 1 3
3 1 2
2 0 2
1 0 1
6 1 5
7 2 5
3 0 3
1 0 1
2 1 1
2 0 2
8 1 7
2 1 1
8 3 5
5 1 4
3 0 3
6 2 4
5 2 3
6 2 4
2 0 2
2 0 2
2 1 1
3 1 2
4 1 3
3 1 2
6 2 4
3 1 2
7 0 7
2 2 0
5 2 3
4 4 0
3 2 1
3 1 2
7 1 6
4 2 2
5 2 3
6 4 2
6 4 2
4 3 1
1 1 0
1 1 0
7 2 5
6 2 4
3 1 2
9 2 7
4 2 2
3 0 3
10 2 8
6 4 2
2 0 2
5 0 5
7 4 3
6 3 3
3 0 3
5 3 2
8 2 6
4 1 3
7 3 4
5 1 4
5 0 5
3 2 1
2 0 2
3 0 3
0 0 0
6 1 5
6 1 5
5 2 3
4 2 2
6 2 4
1 1 0
6 1 5
9 3 6
8 5 3

PortWatch disruption record

Trade Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz

RED

Trade Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz from: 01 Mar 2026 to: - .

Active since
Coverage
Strait polygon
Latest traffic
2 crossings

Source: IMF PortWatch · snapshot fetched

Six-port watch

Context around the chokepoint

Fujairah, Jebel Ali, Khalifa, Sohar, Ras Laffan, and Ras Tanura help separate route pressure from broader Gulf trade.

View port activity

Markets

A delayed board with an attribution rule

Brent, WTI, and selected shipping or energy equities are shown as delayed market context. A move becomes conflict commentary only when strong reporting or specialist analysis connects it to Hormuz or the wider conflict. The board itself is not a causal model.

Open markets desk

Delayed commodities

Brent and WTI

Provider delayed

The interactive commodity board is supplied by TradingView and may be blocked. The instruments tracked here are Brent crude and WTI crude.

Selected equities

Energy and shipping watch

Provider delayed

Prices are context, not a causal claim. Direct instrument pages remain available if the embedded board is blocked.

Field Guide

Field Guide spotlight

A chokepoint can carry selective, protected, approved, or AIS-dark traffic while remaining unusable for routine unrestricted commercial passage. The unit of evidence matters: a ship crossed; traffic normalized; an authority issued terms. Those are three different statements.

Read the guide

Guide 1

Shipping basics

Read traffic counts with route conditions, publication lag, vessel type, and the difference between an observed crossing and a normal commercial schedule.

Guide 2

Weapons and systems

The desk explains systems only when their verified appearance or use changes the reporting picture.

Guide 3

Actors

Iran, the United States, Gulf governments, Oman, maritime authorities, shipowners, insurers, crews, and energy buyers each answer a different version of the question.

Guide 4

Background

Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman. Its importance comes from concentrated energy exports, dense commercial traffic, and very limited substitutes.

External reading

Useful exits

A small set of primary documents and strong reporting, selected for relevance rather than volume.

IMF PortWatch

PortWatch platform

Source platform for the site’s delayed AIS-derived datasets.

IMF PortWatch

The evidence store is internal. The citations are not.