The Hormuz Desk

Evidence through

Live situation desk

Iran, Hormuz, and the routes through

Is the Strait open? Still no

UTC

Gulf

What changed

The two-minute briefing

Routine unrestricted commercial navigation remains unverified as attacks and coercive controls persist. Reuters Connect carries a CENTCOM handout about an October 10 strike on Ocean Molica. CENTCOM says it disabled the cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman after the crew ignored blockade warnings. Reuters checked the date using ship-tracking data; the exact strike location remains unverified. This is evidence of continuing enforcement, not normalized access. Reuters separately reported an October 9 projectile strike and extinguished fire off the UAE; crew status and damage remain unknown. Earlier reporting describes Iranian threats against unauthorized export routes and repeated tanker attacks. Higher regional exports include bypass routes and transfers. PortWatch still ends October 4 with four cargo crossings and no tankers; lagged AIS observations cannot establish safe unrestricted passage.

Evidence through · 127 words

Rolling situation

What is happening now

Newest accepted claims first. Labels describe the evidence state; source roles describe who supplied it.

  1. Operational Status Claimed

    Reuters Connect: Ocean Molica strike handout and date verification

    Reuters Connect carries a CENTCOM handout depicting smoke and fire after a strike on October 10. CENTCOM says it disabled Ocean Molica in the Gulf of Oman after the crew ignored blockade warnings. Reuters checked the date using ship-tracking data; the exact strike location is unverified.

    Attribution: CENTCOM handout via Reuters Connect; Reuters date verification

  2. Operational Status Claimed

    Vessel Struck by Unknown Projectile Off UAE Coast Amid Surge in Attacks, UKMTO Says

    Reuters relays UKMTO’s report of a projectile strike 13 nautical miles west of Al Jazeera, UAE, on October 9, causing a fire that was extinguished. Crew status, damage and environmental impact remain unknown. Shipping and security sources identify GEM NO.2; its operator could not be reached. Responsibility is unclaimed.

    Attribution: Reuters via gCaptain, citing UKMTO and shipping/security sources

  3. Operational Status Claimed

    Attack Risks Rise for Tankers as Iran Vows to Block More Hormuz Routes

    Reuters cites regional sources describing Iranian threats against unauthorized export routes. Maritime security sources identify the tanker struck north of Qatar as Acers and report minor crew injuries; the operator was unreachable. These attributed accounts do not establish unrestricted passage.

    Attribution: Reuters via gCaptain, citing regional officials and maritime security sources

  4. Operational Status Claimed

    Attacks on Tankers in Hormuz Hit Highest of Any Week Since Start of Iran War, Sources Say

    Reuters via gCaptain reports maritime security sources counted at least 12 tanker attacks around Hormuz in September 28–October 5, the highest weekly total since the war began. Separate IMO data recorded nine vessel incidents; coverage and verification differ. Reuters also relays JMIC’s warning of persistent attacks and harassment.

    Attribution: Reuters via gCaptain, citing maritime security sources, IMO data and JMIC

  5. Operational Status Claimed

    UKMTO Warning 158-26: reported tanker strike north of Qatar

    UKMTO’s indexed Warning 158-26 reports a tanker struck by multiple projectiles 51 nautical miles north of Madinat ash Shamal, Qatar, on October 7 at 1900. Casualties were reported; the notice gives no count in the retrieved text. Vessel identity and responsibility remain unverified.

    Attribution: UKMTO Warning 158-26, official homepage search index

  6. Operational Status Claimed

    A Dozen Seafarers Injured in Strait of Hormuz Tanker Attack, India Says

    gCaptain cites India’s foreign ministry saying 12 On Peace crew members were injured after a projectile strike and evacuated with Omani assistance. Responsibility and a link to UKMTO’s October 5 engine-room fire remain unconfirmed.

    Attribution: gCaptain citing India’s Ministry of External Affairs

  7. Operational Status Claimed

    Five Hormuz Incidents Reported Monday as Tanker Attacks Mount

    gCaptain reports an October 5 tanker strike and engine-room fire, delayed attack notices and an IRGC turnback order. It relays CENTCOM’s claim of 130 redirected vessels under the Iran-port blockade. Incident overlap and original official notices remain unverified.

    Attribution: gCaptain citing UKMTO and CENTCOM

  8. Shipping Claimed

    Middle East Crude Oil Exports Exceed Pre-War Levels But Attacks Increase

    Reuters via gCaptain cites provisional Kpler data putting regional crude exports at an 18.5 million bpd seven-day average on October 1, including Hormuz, Red Sea and Gulf of Oman transfers. It also relays Marisks’ report of continuing tanker attacks; unrestricted navigation remains unverified.

    Attribution: Reuters via gCaptain, citing provisional Kpler data and Marisks

  9. Shipping Claimed

    Saudi-Backed Forces Claim Control of Bab el-Mandeb Strait

    Reuters reports Yemeni government claims of control around Bab el-Mandeb after Saudi-backed advances. Houthis deny gains, fighting continues, and remaining drone reach leaves shipping security unresolved. Territorial claims do not verify safe passage or Hormuz reopening.

    Attribution: Reuters via gCaptain, citing Yemeni officials and Houthi denial

  12. Operational Status Claimed

    Six Vessels Hit in Strait of Hormuz Since Sunday

    gCaptain cites UKMTO Warning 148-26: an outbound tanker reported a projectile strike on October 2, causing a fire and blackout. The fire was extinguished and passage continued; no casualties or environmental impact were reported. Vessel identity and responsibility remain unknown.

    Attribution: gCaptain citing UKMTO; corroborated by Reuters via Times of Israel

At a glance

Four desks, no flashing lights

The latest accepted change from each core desk. Quiet cards are allowed to remain quiet.

Analysis

Read beyond the answer

Interpretation is published from accepted evidence and does not manufacture a new event.

All analysis

Shipping data

Published movement, with the lag left on

Nonzero crossings and an active disruption record can occupy the same page without starting an argument.

Open Strait desk

IMF PortWatch

Published Strait crossings

Data through

Latest day
4

Seven-day average
2.7

Published crossings

90-day peak
26

Publication lag
3 days

At snapshot fetch

Daily AIS-derived Strait of Hormuz crossing counts Ninety published days ending Oct 4, 2026. Bars show daily crossings and the gold line shows a rolling seven-day average. Exact values follow in a table.
AIS-derived counts are useful context, not proof of unrestricted passage. The upstream series may lag and revise. Snapshot fetched .
Read the daily values
Latest 90 published PortWatch days, newest first
DateAll crossingsTankersOther cargo
4 0 4
2 0 2
4 0 4
0 0 0
4 4 0
1 0 1
4 2 2
1 1 0
4 1 3
3 2 1
5 3 2
4 1 3
3 1 2
2 0 2
1 0 1
6 1 5
7 2 5
3 0 3
1 0 1
2 1 1
2 0 2
8 1 7
2 1 1
8 3 5
5 1 4
3 0 3
6 2 4
5 2 3
6 2 4
2 0 2
2 0 2
2 1 1
3 1 2
4 1 3
3 1 2
6 2 4
3 1 2
7 0 7
2 2 0
5 2 3
4 4 0
3 2 1
3 1 2
7 1 6
4 2 2
5 2 3
6 4 2
6 4 2
4 3 1
1 1 0
1 1 0
7 2 5
6 2 4
3 1 2
9 2 7
4 2 2
3 0 3
10 2 8
6 4 2
2 0 2
5 0 5
7 4 3
6 3 3
3 0 3
5 3 2
8 2 6
4 1 3
7 3 4
5 1 4
5 0 5
3 2 1
2 0 2
3 0 3
0 0 0
6 1 5
6 1 5
5 2 3
4 2 2
6 2 4
1 1 0
6 1 5
9 3 6
8 5 3
10 2 8
4 1 3
6 3 3
7 4 3
10 3 7
20 8 12
26 10 16

PortWatch disruption record

Trade Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz

RED

Trade Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz from: 01 Mar 2026 to: - .

Active since
Coverage
Strait polygon
Latest traffic
4 crossings

Source: IMF PortWatch · snapshot fetched

Six-port watch

Context around the chokepoint

Fujairah, Jebel Ali, Khalifa, Sohar, Ras Laffan, and Ras Tanura help separate route pressure from broader Gulf trade.

View port activity

Markets

A delayed board with an attribution rule

Brent, WTI, and selected shipping or energy equities are shown as delayed market context. A move becomes conflict commentary only when strong reporting or specialist analysis connects it to Hormuz or the wider conflict. The board itself is not a causal model.

Open markets desk

Delayed commodities

Brent and WTI

Provider delayed

The interactive commodity board is supplied by TradingView and may be blocked. The instruments tracked here are Brent crude and WTI crude.

Selected equities

Energy and shipping watch

Provider delayed

Prices are context, not a causal claim. Direct instrument pages remain available if the embedded board is blocked.

Field Guide

Field Guide spotlight

A chokepoint can carry selective, protected, approved, or AIS-dark traffic while remaining unusable for routine unrestricted commercial passage. The unit of evidence matters: a ship crossed; traffic normalized; an authority issued terms. Those are three different statements.

Read the guide

Guide 1

Shipping basics

Read traffic counts with route conditions, publication lag, vessel type, and the difference between an observed crossing and a normal commercial schedule.

Guide 2

Weapons and systems

The desk explains systems only when their verified appearance or use changes the reporting picture.

Guide 3

Actors

Iran, the United States, Gulf governments, Oman, maritime authorities, shipowners, insurers, crews, and energy buyers each answer a different version of the question.

Guide 4

Background

Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman. Its importance comes from concentrated energy exports, dense commercial traffic, and very limited substitutes.

External reading

Useful exits

A small set of primary documents and strong reporting, selected for relevance rather than volume.

IMF PortWatch

PortWatch platform

Source platform for the site’s delayed AIS-derived datasets.

IMF PortWatch

The evidence store is internal. The citations are not.