The Hormuz Desk

Evidence through

The standing question

Is the Strait of Hormuz open?

Still no

UTC

Gulf

What changed

The two-minute briefing

Routine commercial navigation still is not verified. AP reported Friday that U.S. companies and Iraq signed agreements for alternative oil-export routes as the war sharply reduced exports through Hormuz. AP also reported expanded U.S. strikes on Hormozgan bridges and a Chabahar port surveillance tower while Iran fired missiles toward regional states. JMIC update 072 kept the maritime threat SEVERE, noted the renewed U.S. blockade, cited one vessel disabled while trying to breach it, and warned of mine risk, GNSS interference, surveillance, hailing, and heightened transit procedures. CENTCOM said its latest strike wave hit coastal surveillance, air-defense, logistics, and maritime-capability targets. PortWatch shows nonzero AIS-derived crossings through July 12, but those lagged counts coexist with blockade enforcement and armed coercion. Selective movement continues. Routine open passage does not.

Evidence through · 127 words

reported

JMIC keeps threat severe

JMIC update 072 cited the renewed blockade, a disabled blockade-breach vessel, mine risk, GNSS interference, and heightened transit procedures.

JMIC / UKMTO,

At a glance

Four desks, no flashing lights

The latest accepted change from each core desk. Quiet cards are allowed to remain quiet.

Analysis

Read beyond the answer

Interpretation is published from accepted evidence and does not manufacture a new event.

All analysis

Shipping data

Published movement, with the lag left on

Nonzero crossings and an active disruption record can occupy the same page without starting an argument.

Open Strait desk

IMF PortWatch

Published Strait crossings

Data through

Latest day
10

Seven-day average
16.4

Published crossings

90-day peak
51

Publication lag
3 days

At snapshot fetch

Daily AIS-derived Strait of Hormuz crossing counts Ninety published days ending Jul 12, 2026. Bars show daily crossings and the gold line shows a rolling seven-day average. Exact values follow in a table.
AIS-derived counts are useful context, not proof of unrestricted passage. The upstream series may lag and revise. Snapshot fetched .
Read the daily values
Latest 90 published PortWatch days, newest first
DateAll crossingsTankersOther cargo
10 1 9
14 4 10
9 4 5
11 4 7
15 5 10
28 12 16
28 14 14
26 16 10
22 11 11
31 21 10
34 18 16
40 23 17
21 6 15
31 13 18
20 11 9
27 9 18
37 19 18
50 23 27
51 21 30
15 5 10
14 9 5
8 1 7
26 12 14
13 5 8
22 11 11
15 1 14
12 2 10
11 1 10
6 0 6
4 0 4
7 1 6
7 2 5
6 1 5
6 2 4
8 2 6
3 1 2
3 0 3
3 0 3
6 2 4
11 4 7
6 4 2
3 2 1
3 0 3
5 1 4
4 0 4
4 0 4
6 2 4
7 2 5
7 0 7
9 2 7
8 1 7
6 0 6
8 2 6
13 5 8
7 3 4
6 1 5
5 2 3
10 2 8
5 2 3
9 4 5
8 2 6
6 1 5
9 4 5
9 3 6
5 2 3
4 1 3
4 1 3
2 0 2
1 0 1
4 0 4
6 1 5
10 5 5
10 4 6
7 4 3
5 3 2
5 2 3
0 0 0
3 2 1
6 2 4
8 3 5
3 2 1
7 4 3
4 3 1
8 5 3
7 5 2
22 14 8
18 10 8
11 5 6
13 7 6
9 5 4

PortWatch disruption record

Trade Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz

RED

Trade Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz from: 01 Mar 2026 to: - .

Active since
Coverage
Strait polygon
Latest traffic
10 crossings

Source: IMF PortWatch · snapshot fetched

Six-port watch

Context around the chokepoint

Fujairah, Jebel Ali, Khalifa, Sohar, Ras Laffan, and Ras Tanura help separate route pressure from broader Gulf trade.

View port activity

Markets

A delayed board with an attribution rule

Brent, WTI, and selected shipping or energy equities are shown as delayed market context. A move becomes conflict commentary only when strong reporting or specialist analysis connects it to Hormuz or the wider conflict. The board itself is not a causal model.

Open markets desk

Delayed commodities

Brent and WTI

Provider delayed

The interactive commodity board is supplied by TradingView and may be blocked. The instruments tracked here are Brent crude and WTI crude.

Selected equities

Energy and shipping watch

Provider delayed

Prices are context, not a causal claim. Direct instrument pages remain available if the embedded board is blocked.

Field Guide

Field Guide spotlight

A chokepoint can carry selective, protected, approved, or AIS-dark traffic while remaining unusable for routine unrestricted commercial passage. The unit of evidence matters: a ship crossed; traffic normalized; an authority issued terms. Those are three different statements.

Read the guide

Guide 1

Shipping basics

Read traffic counts with route conditions, publication lag, vessel type, and the difference between an observed crossing and a normal commercial schedule.

Guide 2

Weapons and systems

The desk explains systems only when their verified appearance or use changes the reporting picture.

Guide 3

Actors

Iran, the United States, Gulf governments, Oman, maritime authorities, shipowners, insurers, crews, and energy buyers each answer a different version of the question.

Guide 4

Background

Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman. Its importance comes from concentrated energy exports, dense commercial traffic, and very limited substitutes.

External reading

Useful exits

A small set of primary documents and strong reporting, selected for relevance rather than volume.

IMF PortWatch

PortWatch platform

Source platform for the site’s delayed AIS-derived datasets.

IMF PortWatch

The evidence store is internal. The citations are not.