U.S. strikes and Iranian attacks on two UAE-linked tankers changed the operating picture again on July 14. AP reported one mariner killed and eight wounded, alongside new attacks on Bahrain and Jordan. Washington says it is reinstating a blockade aimed at Iranian shipping while proposing a 20 percent cargo charge for protected passage; Tehran also claims control. Those accounts agree on very little beyond the fact that routine navigation has not returned. AP cited Kpler data showing crossings down about 52 percent across the latest comparison window and roughly 14 ships on Sunday, versus about 130 a day before the war. JMIC’s latest captured advisory still rates the threat severe. IMF PortWatch shows some AIS-derived crossings through July 5, with an active disruption record. Selective movement continues. Normal commercial passage does not.
Decision log
Narrative phase changes
Iran declares commercial passage open
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reposted a statement saying the Strait of Hormuz was completely open for commercial vessels during the ceasefire period.
This became an important reference point for later comparisons because traffic and enforcement conditions did not normalize.
Reopening claim breaks down within 24 hours
By the next day, closure claims, U.S. pressure, and vessel behavior no longer matched the April 17 reopening narrative.
The site shifted back to a hard-risk posture: any 'open' claim now has to survive operational verification, not rhetoric alone.
Disruption becomes broader than the Strait itself
EIA's April outlook still modeled Hormuz disruption as an active driver of outages and pricing, showing the crisis was feeding through energy systems beyond local navigation claims.
The decision log shifts from 'is it open today?' toward 'what changed the operating environment and did that change persist?'
U.S. begins trying to force a passage lane
U.S. forces began a new effort to move commercial ships through Hormuz, while AP and Axios reported armed exchanges and Iranian threats against non-coordinated traffic.
The Strait moved into a more openly contested enforcement phase: limited protected transits are possible, but normal commercial passage is still not verified.
Operational record
Ninety-day status
Through
Open
Selective
Claimed open
Closed
The strip records the editorial operating assessment, not the existence or absence of individual vessel movements.Read the daily status record
Ninety-day editorial status record
Date
Assessment
Recorded event
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AP reported the U.S. military reimposed its blockade after commercial-ship attacks, launched another strike wave, and Iran threatened to halt regional energy exports; Trump dropped the toll plan but kept an Iran-focused blockade claim.
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AP reported renewed U.S. strikes, Iranian attacks on two UAE-linked tankers in the Strait, dueling U.S.-Iran control claims, a renewed U.S. blockade plan, and traffic far below prewar norms.
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AP reported the U.S. and Iran each asserted control of Hormuz after weekend attacks, Iran described the Strait as closed, and the U.S. said it remained open while supporting the southern Omani route.
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AP reported an Iranian strike left a Cyprus-flagged container ship ablaze in Hormuz, the U.S. hit about 140 Iranian targets, and Iran said the Strait would remain closed until further notice.
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AP reported Tehran still had not publicly guaranteed Hormuz safe passage, Iran continued to claim control and fees, and the U.S. kept urging mariners to use the southern Omani route away from IRGC commands.
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JMIC update 069 kept the Strait threat SEVERE, reported reduced traffic after the three-vessel attack, and said deliberate hostile action remained likely despite U.S.-assisted transits.
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AP reported a new U.S. strike round and Iranian fire at Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar after Hormuz ship attacks; CENTCOM said July 8 strikes targeted Iran shipping-threat capabilities.
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AP reported U.S. strikes on Iran after three Hormuz ship attacks, Iran targeted Bahrain and Kuwait, and JMIC raised the Strait threat to SEVERE with further deliberate hostile action likely.
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AP reported a tanker caught fire after a projectile strike near Limah, and Axios reported U.S. officials said Iran fired missiles at commercial ships transiting Hormuz.
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AP reported talks remained on hold during Khamenei funeral events while route-control tensions persisted and Trump warned Iran to make a deal or face further U.S. action.
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Guardian reported the diplomatic and military contest for Hormuz control intensified and ship flow dropped further, with routing shifting away from the Omani corridor.
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Guardian later reported at least eight ships turned around after direct IRGC warnings, reinforcing that passage remained coercive and route-controlled.
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No newer primary-source normalization signal; July 2 AP and JMIC evidence still showed Iranian-approved routing, substantial maritime threat, and uncertain volumes.
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AP reported Iran warned tankers to use Iranian-approved Hormuz routes or face force, while traffic rebounded but stayed below prewar levels and route choices remained contingent on shifting approvals.
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AP reported Iranian state TV said a foreign container ship grounded after failing to follow Iran's approved Hormuz route, underscoring managed passage rather than routine open navigation.
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AP reported U.S. envoys in Qatar for indirect implementation talks after weekend Hormuz crossfire, but Qatar and Iran said there were no direct U.S.-Iran negotiations and passage remained unresolved.
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AP reported a pause in U.S.-Iran strikes and continued ship movement, but also disputed talks, Iranian route-control claims, below-normal traffic, dark crossings, and elevated IRGC speedboat activity.
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AP reported Iran attacked Bahrain and Kuwait after U.S. strikes, and JMIC raised the Strait threat level to substantial after the Ever Lovely and M/T Kiku vessel attacks.
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CENTCOM said Iran hit the M/T Kiku near Hormuz with a one-way attack drone and U.S. forces struck Iranian surveillance, air-defense, drone, and minelayer capabilities.
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Trump said Iran launched one-way attack drones at ships transiting Hormuz, including a cargo-ship hit; the new escalation signal reinforced that managed movement was not normalized open passage.
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AP reported the IMO paused Hormuz evacuations after the Ever Lovely was reportedly attacked near Oman; route-control warnings, mines, and enforcement risk outweighed isolated managed transits.
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New Trump claims of a lifted U.S. blockade and record oil flow were not matched by normal AIS counts or clearance of the mined central route; managed passage remained the defensible finding.
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AP and JMIC reported traffic increasing after the U.S.-Iran MOU, but mined central routing, alternate-route use, GNSS interference, and unresolved control questions kept normal passage unverified.
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AP reported safe-passage mechanisms from Swiss talks while ship-tracking showed reduced crossings after Iran renewed its closure claim; managed movement remains short of normal passage.
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Iran said it closed Hormuz again while CENTCOM reported 55 merchant ships transited; JMIC southern-route procedures, mines, congestion, and talks risk keep normal passage unverified.
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JMIC says Hormuz is open and blockade operations have ceased, but mine-cleared routing, TSS avoidance, congestion, and delayed follow-on talks keep normal passage unverified.
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AP reported unresolved Iran-deal implementation and delayed follow-on talks, while shipping-industry reporting said mines and routing constraints still blocked normal Hormuz operations.
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AP said the U.S. and Iran signed an initial Hormuz reopening framework, while JMIC still reported substantial risk, mine concerns, GNSS interference, and reduced traffic.
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AP said the G7 backed a tentative Hormuz reopening deal, but the text remained unreleased and operational normalization still could take weeks or months.
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AP reported allies were planning possible mine-clearance and escort support, while Trump said Hormuz was partially opened; routine unrestricted passage remained unverified.
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AP reported an initial U.S.-Iran deal and Trump ordered Hormuz opening, but implementation awaited Friday signing and operating normalization remained unverified.
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AP said a possible U.S.-Iran deal remained close but unsigned; Iran rejected a Sunday signing timeline and Hormuz reopening stayed deal-contingent.
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AP reported agreed wording for a possible U.S.-Iran deal, but reopening remained prospective and CENTCOM said Iranian drones targeted commercial ships in Hormuz.
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AP reported Trump was again raising expectations for an Iran deal, but Iran had not confirmed final terms and AP said Iran continued to effectively keep Hormuz closed.
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AP and CENTCOM reported a second day of U.S.-Iran strikes, Iran maintaining its Hormuz chokehold, and another fatal blockade vessel disablement; no verified operational reopening followed.
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AP and CENTCOM reported U.S. strikes near Hormuz, Iranian retaliation, and continued blockade enforcement; no verified operational reopening followed.
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AP reported a U.S. Army Apache crashed near the Strait of Hormuz and said the waterway remained under Iran's chokehold; no verified reopening followed.
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AP reported wider Israel-Iran strikes, fire at a U.S. base in Saudi Arabia, and Iran's Hormuz chokehold still challenging war-ending talks; no verified reopening followed.
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AP reported CENTCOM said U.S. forces shot down two more Iranian attack drones over Hormuz after Iran fired at Gulf allies; no verified reopening followed.
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CENTCOM, AP, and Reuters reported Iranian missiles or drones near Hormuz, U.S. radar-site strikes, and continued permissioned or threatened passage; no verified reopening followed.
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Reuters and AFP-derived reports showed reopening hopes and AIS-dark tanker movement, but no verified normal commercial passage.
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A Reuters-derived report described a possible temporary deal to restore safe shipping, but no verified operational reopening followed.
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AP reported a drone strike on Kuwait airport and continued U.S. efforts to loosen Iran's Hormuz chokehold; no verified operational reopening followed.
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CENTCOM said Iranian drones targeted civilian mariners, U.S. forces struck Qeshm Island, and U.S. forces disabled a sixth blockade vessel; no verified reopening followed.
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AP reported fresh U.S.-Iran strikes and said Hormuz traffic remained a trickle under Iran's chokehold; no verified reopening followed.
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Bloomberg reported 29 trapped non-Iranian vessels had exited with U.S. informational support, but blockade, attack risk, and no verified reopening persisted.
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CENTCOM said U.S. forces disabled another blockade-running vessel and AP reported continued low-volume, rule-bound traffic; no verified reopening followed.
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AP said Trump ended a Situation Room meeting without approving the tentative Iran-Hormuz deal; Trump posted reopening terms, but no verified operational reopening followed.
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AP and Reuters described only a tentative, unapproved Hormuz deal while CENTCOM reported Iranian drones threatening the Strait area and Treasury targeted Iran's shipping-control authority.
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AP said Hormuz deal talks remained in flux and Reuters said flows through the Strait remained restricted; no verified reopening followed.
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AP and Reuters reported U.S. strikes on Iranian missile sites and mine-laying boats; no verified source showed operational reopening.
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AP reported an emerging Iran deal, but reopening terms remained unresolved while blockade and PortWatch disruption evidence stayed active.
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CENTCOM confirmed 100 blockade redirects while AP reported a Hormuz reopening deal remained subject to finalization.
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AP reported only slight progress in Iran talks and NATO postwar-policing discussions; no verified source showed operational reopening.
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Routine check found no verified reopening; latest PortWatch counts remained low and intermittent through May 17 while blockade enforcement remained active.
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No stronger Reuters, AP, CENTCOM, UKMTO, or JMIC evidence showed normalized reopening after May 20 selective transits and blockade enforcement.
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AP reported a U.S. tanker boarding and Reuters reported selective tanker exits amid low traffic, hundreds blocked, and no verified normalization.
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AP and Axios reported Trump paused a planned Iran strike for talks, but no verified evidence showed normalized Hormuz commercial passage.
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A new May 17 Trump Iran threat raised political risk, but no verified reporting showed normalized Hormuz commercial passage.
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CENTCOM still showed May 8 as its latest Hormuz-related press release, while PortWatch data still ended at low intermittent counts through May 10.
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Routine checks found no official, AP, or Reuters evidence of normalized reopening after the May 14-15 seizure, sinking, and blockade reports.
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New AP and Reuters reporting showed a vessel seized near Fujairah and another sunk off Oman; CENTCOM-linked reporting showed blockade redirections rising.
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AP again described effective closure during the Trump-Xi summit; Reuters, CENTCOM, JMIC, and PortWatch evidence still did not show normalization.
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Reuters and AP still described Hormuz as effectively shut or in Iran's chokehold while refreshed AIS counts stayed low and intermittent.
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AP reported Trump was seeking China's help to pressure Iran to accept U.S. terms or reopen Hormuz; no verified reopening followed.
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Reuters reported Trump rejected Iran's response and that the stalemate was keeping Hormuz shipping largely closed or paralyzed.
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Reuters reported Iran sent a response aimed at halting the war and allowing Hormuz traffic, but any Qatari LNG movement remained selective and Iran-approved.
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AP and Reuters reported relative calm but no verified reopening, with Iran warning against further tanker attacks and diplomacy still unresolved.
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AP and CENTCOM reported two more Iranian-flagged tankers disabled under blockade enforcement after overnight Strait fire exchanges.
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AP and Axios reported U.S. and Iranian fire in the Strait; Reuters said reopening Hormuz remained unresolved in peace talks.
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AP, Reuters, CENTCOM, and JMIC still showed a paused escort effort, active blockade enforcement, attacks, and reduced Strait traffic.
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AP and Reuters reported only two known U.S.-guarded crossings, continued attacks, and hundreds of ships still bottled up.
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Reuters saw no broad traffic recovery; AP reported U.S. transits alongside renewed fighting and Iranian attacks.
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Trump announced Project Freedom to guide stuck ships through Hormuz starting Monday.
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Iran offered a Strait deal, but no verified reopening or traffic normalization followed.
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Iran sent a new response through mediators, but Trump said he was not satisfied; no verified reopening followed.
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Trump kept the U.S. blockade tied to nuclear-deal leverage after rejecting Iran's reopen-first proposal.
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No verified normalization followed; selective crossings continued to fall far short of open commercial traffic.
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AP said roughly 80 vessels passed during April 13-19, but most ships still could not pass and crews remained stranded.
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Reuters reported only seven ships in the prior 24 hours and six Iranian tankers turned back under the blockade.
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Ceasefire diplomacy continued, but AP still described the Strait as effectively shut and crews remained stranded.
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Washington widened pressure with new sanctions on a Chinese refinery and about 40 shipping firms and vessels; no verified reopening followed.
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Reuters reported only five ships in the prior 24 hours, keeping Hormuz in near-standstill conditions.
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Trump ordered U.S. forces to shoot mine-laying boats; Iran kept its grip on shipping.
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Iran fired on three ships in the Strait and seized two outbound container vessels.
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Traffic remained largely halted; Reuters reported only three ships in the prior 24 hours.
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IRGC: 'Completely closed'. Active conflict resumed.
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IRGC: 'Completely closed'. Active conflict resumed.
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IRGC: 'Completely closed'. Active conflict resumed.
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Iran declares Strait 'Open'; US blockade remains active.