U.S. strikes and Iranian attacks on two UAE-linked tankers changed the operating picture again on July 14. AP reported one mariner killed and eight wounded, alongside new attacks on Bahrain and Jordan. Washington says it is reinstating a blockade aimed at Iranian shipping while proposing a 20 percent cargo charge for protected passage; Tehran also claims control. Those accounts agree on very little beyond the fact that routine navigation has not returned. AP cited Kpler data showing crossings down about 52 percent across the latest comparison window and roughly 14 ships on Sunday, versus about 130 a day before the war. JMIC’s latest captured advisory still rates the threat severe. IMF PortWatch shows some AIS-derived crossings through July 5, with an active disruption record. Selective movement continues. Normal commercial passage does not.
Decision log
Narrative phase changes
Iran declares commercial passage open
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reposted a statement saying the Strait of Hormuz was completely open for commercial vessels during the ceasefire period.
This became an important reference point for later comparisons because traffic and enforcement conditions did not normalize.
Reopening claim breaks down within 24 hours
By the next day, closure claims, U.S. pressure, and vessel behavior no longer matched the April 17 reopening narrative.
The site shifted back to a hard-risk posture: any 'open' claim now has to survive operational verification, not rhetoric alone.
Disruption becomes broader than the Strait itself
EIA's April outlook still modeled Hormuz disruption as an active driver of outages and pricing, showing the crisis was feeding through energy systems beyond local navigation claims.
The decision log shifts from 'is it open today?' toward 'what changed the operating environment and did that change persist?'
U.S. begins trying to force a passage lane
U.S. forces began a new effort to move commercial ships through Hormuz, while AP and Axios reported armed exchanges and Iranian threats against non-coordinated traffic.
The Strait moved into a more openly contested enforcement phase: limited protected transits are possible, but normal commercial passage is still not verified.
Operational record
Ninety-day status
Through
Open
Selective
Claimed open
Closed
The strip records the editorial operating assessment, not the existence or absence of individual vessel movements.Read the daily status record
Ninety-day editorial status record
Date
Assessment
Recorded event
Closed
gCaptain reports a fatal attack on Cape Dao off Musandam; routine unrestricted Hormuz passage remains unverified.
Closed
Reported Saudi bypass restart does not verify Hormuz reopening; unrestricted passage remains unverified after September 21 tanker incidents.
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gCaptain cites UKMTO reports of two further tanker incidents; original notices await direct verification and unrestricted passage remains unverified.
Reuters reports only four observed September 15 crossings; routine unrestricted passage remains unverified and transponder-off traffic may be missed.
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AP relays conflicting U.S. and Iranian accounts of boat strikes; routine unrestricted commercial passage remains unverified.
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Routine unrestricted Hormuz passage remains unverified; AP reports additional risk to the Red Sea alternative.
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AP relays a fatal vessel-strike account near Qeshm and a separate UKMTO hit report; routine unrestricted passage remains unverified.
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AP reports disruption persists while Saudi Arabia’s pipeline bypass is shut; no routine unrestricted reopening verified.
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AP reports improved protected oil flows alongside continuing attacks and blockade; unrestricted passage remains unverified.
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AP reports Hormuz shipping remains impeded as the Houthi capture of Mokha raises alternative-route risk.
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AP reports Iranian ship-strike claims, a U.S. denial of warship hits, and a separate Iraqi tanker-strike report; unrestricted passage remains unverified.
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CENTCOM reports five more Iranian tanker strikes; AP relays retaliation threats to tankers near Kuwait and Bahrain. Routine unrestricted passage remains unverified.
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Prior verified status carried forward: routine unrestricted passage and implementation of Iran’s planned exclusion zone remain unverified.
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AP reported a U.S. denial of Iran’s vessel-strike claim and an Iranian plan for an exclusion zone; implementation and routine unrestricted passage remain unverified.
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CENTCOM reported strikes on three Iranian tankers; UKMTO reported disabling fire against merchant vessels in the Northern Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.
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AP said traffic remained far below prewar levels under Iranian vetting and attack risk; a protected shuttle near Oman did not amount to routine unrestricted passage.
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AP reported two sailors died in a Saudi tanker attack approaching Hormuz as traffic remained a trickle and regional retaliation widened.
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AP said Iran claimed a tightened effective closure while only a handful of ships passed daily and vessels remained subject to attack.
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AP relayed UKMTO's report that an outbound tanker was struck by three unknown projectiles east of Khasab; routine passage remained unverified.
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AP reported renewed U.S.-Iran military action around Hormuz, including alleged sea-mine launch preparations and a UAE interception of an Iranian drone.
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Iran's deputy foreign minister said the Oman transit understanding is conditional, Hormuz remains closed, and any vessel passage requires Iranian coordination and authorization.
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AP reported Iran continues to demand formal authority over Hormuz, leaving routine unrestricted passage unresolved.
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AP described Hormuz as virtually closed and said CENTCOM's claim that international shipping lanes were demined and open could not be independently verified.
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AP reported another oil tanker was hit in the Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing that routine unrestricted navigation remained unverified.
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AP reported a potential Iran-Oman traffic arrangement would exclude military vessels and use controlled Iranian and Omani routes while Hormuz remained largely shut.
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AP reported a proposed Iran-Oman temporary navigation corridor and mine-clearing cooperation, but Hormuz remained largely shut and a tanker was disabled in an attack off Oman.
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UKMTO said AIS-detected traffic remained about 90% below pre-conflict levels through August 21; Reuters reported only 13 tracked commodity-vessel crossings Saturday and four Sunday.
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AP reported attacks had calmed, but a new Iranian authority listed dozens of vessels for future transit restrictions, leaving routine unrestricted passage unverified.
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AP reported Iran was facilitating passage for some Iraqi-oil ships while threatening alternative Gulf export routes, reinforcing selective rather than routine unrestricted navigation.
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AP reported the United States was escalating economic pressure to force Iran to fully reopen Hormuz, leaving routine unrestricted reopening unverified.
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AP reported the USS George Washington arrived in the Middle East while the U.S. Navy continued enforcing its blockade on Iranian ports in Hormuz.
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AP reported only 10 vessels crossed Hormuz on August 18, fewer than one-tenth of the unrestricted prewar norm, while the UAE said missiles targeted maritime traffic and Iran denied launching them.
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AP reported a ship strike and 95 confirmed weekly crossings confined to the Iranian-designated route, with none recorded on Omani routes.
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AP reported an Iran-Oman understanding on a transit-route map, but details and a joint statement remained unfinished and routine passage was not verified.
Closed
No verified implemented passage regime superseded the latest tanker attacks, continuing blockade, and effectively shut operating picture.
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AP reported another ADNOC-owned tanker was attacked during a Hormuz transit, the third such attack on an ADNOC-operated vessel in a week.
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AP reported two ADNOC tankers suffered minor damage in drone attacks while transiting Hormuz; the UAE blamed Iran, which had not immediately responded.
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AP reported that the U.S. Navy's Iran-port blockade remained in force and another aircraft carrier was heading toward the region.
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An AP report updated August 12 described Hormuz as effectively shut and said Iranian attacks still largely impeded traffic despite a conflicting U.S. control claim.
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AP described Hormuz as largely closed and recent reopening attempts as short-lived as the United States returned to sanctions.
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AP reported Iran said it would not reopen Hormuz until the United States met its conditions, including compensation for war damage.
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AP reported final-stage Iran-Oman route talks, but Iran said they did not mean reopening and proposed hostile-country vessel exclusions remained unresolved.
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AP reported new Iranian conditions for reopening and UAE/UKMTO accounts of a fresh vessel strike east of Khasab.
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AP reported that a deal remained close but unsigned, Iran rejected a return to an open international waterway, and routine unrestricted passage remained unverified.
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AP said a draft Iran-Oman arrangement was in its final stage, while at least two ships had been hit in the past week and traffic remained far below normal.
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AP reported progress toward an Iran-Oman reopening arrangement, but no agreement or implemented routine passage regime was verified.
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AP reported a cargo ship struck by an unknown projectile northeast of Al Khasab and described Hormuz as effectively shut.
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AP said cargo remained stalled; Iran described only temporary-route talks, while most of nine reported Sunday transits used an Iranian-controlled route.
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AP said Hormuz cargo traffic remained stalled and prior announced strike pauses repeatedly broke down; no operational reopening was verified.
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AP reported a tanker struck and damaged on July 31 and a separate near-miss explosion on August 1; proposed deal terms to reopen Hormuz remained unagreed and unimplemented.
Closed
AP reported an unconfirmed IRGC claim that two tankers were hit and four others turned around while describing Hormuz as largely closed.
Closed
AP reported a renewed heavy U.S. strike wave against Iranian military and coastal sites, including a reported deadly strike on Qeshm in the Strait.
Closed
AP reported an unconfirmed Revolutionary Guard claim that three unidentified tankers were struck and stopped in Hormuz after alleged route violations.
Closed
AP reported that renewed Iranian missile fire shattered the three-day pause while the Strait remained choked off and routine commercial passage stayed unverified.
Closed
AP reported a third day without U.S. or Iranian attacks, but Iran said Hormuz remained closed, traffic stayed at a three-week low, and the U.S. blockade continued.
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AP reported a second day without attacks, but commercial traffic at a three-week low, unchanged Iranian controls, and an active U.S. blockade.
Closed
AP reported no overnight U.S. strikes after 13 consecutive nights, but the renewed blockade remained active and Hormuz was still effectively closed.
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AP reported the U.S. completed a 13th night of strikes, CENTCOM said it aimed to degrade threats to commercial vessels, and Iran still asserted control and possible fees for Hormuz traffic.
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An AP report updated early July 23 said a 12th night of U.S. strikes was under way while Hormuz remained largely closed, attacks continued, and diplomacy showed little visible progress.
Closed
AP reported an 11th consecutive night of U.S. strikes, described Hormuz as blocked, and said shipping and negotiations remained largely stalled amid unresolved Iranian control and toll demands.
Closed
AP reported daily U.S.-Iran bombing had resumed over Hormuz, Iran had not loosened its grip on the corridor, and airstrikes had not forced routine reopening.
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AP reported expanded U.S. bombing, Iranian retaliation against Bahrain and Kuwait, largely stalled Hormuz shipping, and a vessel fire near Oman in the Strait.
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AP reported U.S. strikes on Revolutionary Guard targets as fighting over Hormuz widened and said the renewed U.S. blockade had redirected five ships and disabled one.
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AP reported another U.S. strike wave intended in part to degrade Iran's ability to restrict Hormuz tanker traffic, while the renewed blockade continued to enforce selective movement.
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AP reported a sixth night of U.S. strikes, Iranian missile fire at regional states, and continued fighting over Hormuz; JMIC update 072 kept the regional threat SEVERE and cited blockade enforcement, mine risk, and GNSS interference.
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AP reported expanded U.S. strikes, Iranian retaliation against Gulf states, and the disabling of Belma under the renewed blockade; JMIC update 071 kept Hormuz SEVERE with reduced traffic, mine risk, and blockade enforcement.
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AP reported the U.S. military reimposed its blockade after commercial-ship attacks, launched another strike wave, and Iran threatened to halt regional energy exports; Trump dropped the toll plan but kept an Iran-focused blockade claim.
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AP reported renewed U.S. strikes, Iranian attacks on two UAE-linked tankers in the Strait, dueling U.S.-Iran control claims, a renewed U.S. blockade plan, and traffic far below prewar norms.
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AP reported the U.S. and Iran each asserted control of Hormuz after weekend attacks, Iran described the Strait as closed, and the U.S. said it remained open while supporting the southern Omani route.
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AP reported an Iranian strike left a Cyprus-flagged container ship ablaze in Hormuz, the U.S. hit about 140 Iranian targets, and Iran said the Strait would remain closed until further notice.
Closed
AP reported Tehran still had not publicly guaranteed Hormuz safe passage, Iran continued to claim control and fees, and the U.S. kept urging mariners to use the southern Omani route away from IRGC commands.
Closed
JMIC update 069 kept the Strait threat SEVERE, reported reduced traffic after the three-vessel attack, and said deliberate hostile action remained likely despite U.S.-assisted transits.
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AP reported a new U.S. strike round and Iranian fire at Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar after Hormuz ship attacks; CENTCOM said July 8 strikes targeted Iran shipping-threat capabilities.
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AP reported U.S. strikes on Iran after three Hormuz ship attacks, Iran targeted Bahrain and Kuwait, and JMIC raised the Strait threat to SEVERE with further deliberate hostile action likely.
Closed
AP reported a tanker caught fire after a projectile strike near Limah, and Axios reported U.S. officials said Iran fired missiles at commercial ships transiting Hormuz.
Sand
AP reported talks remained on hold during Khamenei funeral events while route-control tensions persisted and Trump warned Iran to make a deal or face further U.S. action.
Sand
Guardian reported the diplomatic and military contest for Hormuz control intensified and ship flow dropped further, with routing shifting away from the Omani corridor.
Sand
Guardian later reported at least eight ships turned around after direct IRGC warnings, reinforcing that passage remained coercive and route-controlled.
Sand
No newer primary-source normalization signal; July 2 AP and JMIC evidence still showed Iranian-approved routing, substantial maritime threat, and uncertain volumes.
Sand
AP reported Iran warned tankers to use Iranian-approved Hormuz routes or face force, while traffic rebounded but stayed below prewar levels and route choices remained contingent on shifting approvals.
Sand
AP reported Iranian state TV said a foreign container ship grounded after failing to follow Iran's approved Hormuz route, underscoring managed passage rather than routine open navigation.
Sand
AP reported U.S. envoys in Qatar for indirect implementation talks after weekend Hormuz crossfire, but Qatar and Iran said there were no direct U.S.-Iran negotiations and passage remained unresolved.
Sand
AP reported a pause in U.S.-Iran strikes and continued ship movement, but also disputed talks, Iranian route-control claims, below-normal traffic, dark crossings, and elevated IRGC speedboat activity.
Closed
AP reported Iran attacked Bahrain and Kuwait after U.S. strikes, and JMIC raised the Strait threat level to substantial after the Ever Lovely and M/T Kiku vessel attacks.
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CENTCOM said Iran hit the M/T Kiku near Hormuz with a one-way attack drone and U.S. forces struck Iranian surveillance, air-defense, drone, and minelayer capabilities.
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Trump said Iran launched one-way attack drones at ships transiting Hormuz, including a cargo-ship hit; the new escalation signal reinforced that managed movement was not normalized open passage.